Win Rate vs Profit Factor: Which Metric Really Matters?
Why a high win rate can still lose money, how profit factor captures the full picture, and how to read the two metrics together to judge your trading.
How commissions, exchange fees, spreads and slippage add up, how to calculate their impact on your edge, and practical ways to keep trading costs under control.
A few dollars per trade does not feel like much. Over a year of active trading, it can be the difference between a profitable and a losing account. Costs are paid on every trade, win or lose, so they come straight out of your expectancy.
A day trader takes 8 round-trip trades per day, about 250 days per year: 2,000 round trips.
That is $20,000 a year in costs. If the trader's gross profit is $25,000, costs took 80% of it.
Cost ratio = Total costs ÷ Gross trading profit
If the ratio is high, small improvements in cost have a large effect on net results. Look also at costs per trade compared with your average win. If your average winner is $40 and your costs are $8 per trade, a fifth of every winning trade goes to costs.
Your journal should use net P&L, with commissions and fees attached to each trade. Many statistics, such as profit factor, change meaningfully once costs are included.
Imported trades keep their commissions and fees, and P&L is shown net of costs. The cash flow page shows fees and other costs month by month, so you can see exactly how much trading costs you.
Why a high win rate can still lose money, how profit factor captures the full picture, and how to read the two metrics together to judge your trading.
How to calculate trading expectancy in dollars and in R, worked examples, and how to use expectancy to compare setups and decide what to trade.
How to calculate profit factor, what values are good for day traders and swing traders, its limitations, and how to use it alongside other metrics.